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The Dividend Disconnect

60 Pages Posted: 29 Nov 2016 Last revised: 18 May 2017

Samuel M. Hartzmark

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business

David H. Solomon

Boston College - Carroll School of Management

Date Written: March 9, 2017

Abstract

We show that many individual investors, mutual funds and institutions trade as if dividends and capital gains are separate disconnected attributes, not fully appreciating that dividends come at the expense of price decreases. Behavioral trading patterns (e.g. the disposition effect) are driven by price changes excluding dividends. Investors treat dividends as a separate stable income stream, holding high dividend-yield stocks longer and displaying less sensitivity to their price changes. We term this mistake the free dividends fallacy. Demand for dividends is systematically higher in periods of low interest rates and poor market performance, leading to high valuations and lower future returns for dividend-paying stocks. Investors rarely reinvest dividends into the stocks from which they came, instead purchasing other stocks. This creates predictable marketwide price increases on days of large aggregate dividend payouts, concentrated in stocks not paying dividends.

Keywords: Behavioral Finance, Dividends, Mental Accounting, Asset Pricing

JEL Classification: G02, G11, G12, D14

Suggested Citation

Hartzmark, Samuel M. and Solomon, David H., The Dividend Disconnect (March 9, 2017). 7th Miami Behavioral Finance Conference 2016. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2876373 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2876373

Samuel M. Hartzmark (Contact Author)

University of Chicago - Booth School of Business ( email )

5807 S. Woodlawn Avenue
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

David H. Solomon

Boston College - Carroll School of Management ( email )

140 Commonwealth Avenue
Chestnut Hill, MA 02467
United States

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