Predictability of UK Stock Returns by Using Debt Ratios

CUBS Finance Working Paper No. 05

Cass Business School Research Paper

23 Pages Posted: 2 Nov 2001

See all articles by Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu

Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu

City University London - The Business School; Queen Mary University of London

Mark Whittington

Warwick Business School

Date Written: October 2001

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to examine the ability of debt ratios in predicting company performance and stock returns in the long run. The U.K. companies included in the FTSE-350 index for the past ten years constitute our sample. We rank the companies according to the degree of leverage that they have. Then we examine the predictive ability of the debt burden for shareholder wealth by investigating the cumulative abnormal returns and buy and hold returns in the long-run for a holding period of three years. The results show that companies with moderately low leverage yield buy and hold abnormal returns of up to 20% in three years.

Keywords: Capital markets, leverage, forecasting, equity returns

Suggested Citation

Muradoglu, Yaz Gulnur and Muradoglu, Yaz Gulnur and Whittington, Mark, Predictability of UK Stock Returns by Using Debt Ratios (October 2001). CUBS Finance Working Paper No. 05, Cass Business School Research Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=287653 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.287653

Yaz Gulnur Muradoglu (Contact Author)

City University London - The Business School ( email )

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Queen Mary University of London ( email )

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Mark Whittington

Warwick Business School ( email )

Accounting and Finance Group
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United Kingdom
+44 1203 522138 (Phone)
+44 1203 523 779 (Fax)

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