On Optimising Risk Exposures with Trend-Following Strategies in Currency Overlay Portfolios

38 Pages Posted: 1 Dec 2016

See all articles by Kai-Hong Tee

Kai-Hong Tee

Loughborough University - School of Business and Economics

Date Written: November 30, 2016

Abstract

This paper proposed an optimisation mechanism in the currency overlay portfolios construction process, an area that has not been explored in the literature that tend to focus on pre-determined fixed weights, such as the trading volume of currencies from the survey of the Bank for International Settlement, to construct overlay portfolios and may not always be optimal. This paper optimises the portfolio using the Cholesky Decomposition-based multivariate TVC (Time varying correlation)-GARCH and CC (Constant correlation) GARCH models as allocation schemes, with underlying currencies’ returns originated from a moving average-based trend following single FX strategy in a certain hedging criterion. This paper includes a FX strategy based on the equally weighted (average) of the three different single moving average days to determine hedging needs underlying the hedging criterion. The paper uses the returns of the strategies of EW (equally weighted)-TFX and TFX to construct the optimal currencies overlay portfolios. The findings reveal the EW-TFX portfolios with the TVC-GARCH scheme have the best risk-adjusted portfolio returns. There are some evidences on the significant differences of the portfolios' returns of the EW-TFX overlay portfolios with other currencies portfolios, hence supporting the outperformance. The findings also support existing evidence in the literature.

Keywords: Currency overlay portfolios, time-varying correlation (TVC)-GARCH model, hedging criterion, trend following strategy, Cholesky Decomposition

JEL Classification: G1; F3; C1; C5

Suggested Citation

Tee, Kai-Hong, On Optimising Risk Exposures with Trend-Following Strategies in Currency Overlay Portfolios (November 30, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2877802

Kai-Hong Tee (Contact Author)

Loughborough University - School of Business and Economics ( email )

Epinal Way
Leics LE11 3TU
Leicestershire
United Kingdom

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