9 Pages Posted: 14 Dec 2016 Last revised: 6 Aug 2017
Date Written: August 3, 2017
In this short paper we are developing an empirical model that allows us to assess the economic impact of Brexit nearly in real-time. For this we use the electricity demand in England and Wales as a proxy of economic activity. We control for a large variety of external influencing factors like varies weather indicators, calendar and time variables, as well as public holidays and other events (e.g. Olympics). The resulting residuals allow us to make inferences on the economic, and here in particular manufacturing activity, in the country.
Keywords: Brexit, Energy Demand, Economic Activity
JEL Classification: E27, E37, E65
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Kirchmaier, Tom and Ruiz de Gauna de Santiago, Nerea, Turning on the Light: Assessing the Impact of Brexit Using Electricity Demand as a Proxy (August 3, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2879285 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2879285