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Turning on the Light: Assessing the Impact of Brexit Using Electricity Demand as a Proxy

9 Pages Posted: 14 Dec 2016 Last revised: 6 Aug 2017

Tom Kirchmaier

London School of Economics - Centre for Economic Performance; Copenhagen Business School

Nerea Ruiz de Gauna de Santiago

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE)

Date Written: August 3, 2017

Abstract

In this short paper we are developing an empirical model that allows us to assess the economic impact of Brexit nearly in real-time. For this we use the electricity demand in England and Wales as a proxy of economic activity. We control for a large variety of external influencing factors like varies weather indicators, calendar and time variables, as well as public holidays and other events (e.g. Olympics). The resulting residuals allow us to make inferences on the economic, and here in particular manufacturing activity, in the country.

Keywords: Brexit, Energy Demand, Economic Activity

JEL Classification: E27, E37, E65

Suggested Citation

Kirchmaier, Tom and Ruiz de Gauna de Santiago, Nerea, Turning on the Light: Assessing the Impact of Brexit Using Electricity Demand as a Proxy (August 3, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2879285 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2879285

Tom Kirchmaier (Contact Author)

London School of Economics - Centre for Economic Performance ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom
+44 207 955 6854 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/tomkirchmaier/home

Copenhagen Business School ( email )

Porcelænshaven 24A, 3rd floor
Copenhagen
Denmark

Nerea Ruiz de Gauna de Santiago

London School of Economics & Political Science (LSE) ( email )

Houghton Street
London, WC2A 2AE
United Kingdom

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