Decarbonization Pathways in Southeast Asia: New Results for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam

62 Pages Posted: 6 Dec 2016 Last revised: 4 Mar 2017

See all articles by Francesco Bosello

Francesco Bosello

University of Milan - Department of Economics, Business and Statistics; CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Carlo Orecchia

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

David Raitzer

Asian Development Bank

Date Written: December 6, 2016

Abstract

Southeast Asia is one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to the impacts of climate change. At the same time, the region is also following a trajectory that could make it a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in the future. Understanding the economic implications of policy options for low carbon growth is essential to formulate instruments that achieve the greatest emissions reductions at lowest cost. This study focuses on five developing countries of Southeast Asia that collectively account for 90% of regional emissions in recent years — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. The analyses are based on the CGE economy-energy-environment model ICES under an array of scenarios reflecting business as usual, fragmented climate policies, an approximately 2.4°C post 2020 global climate stabilization target, termed 650 parts per million (ppm) carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalent (eq), and an approximately 2°C global target (termed 500 ppm CO2 eq). Averted deforestation through reducing emissions from forest degradation and deforestation (REDD) is included in some scenarios. The study shows that global and coordinated action is found to be critical to the cost effectiveness of emissions stabilization policies. A 650ppm stabilization scenario (below 3°C in 2100) has a similar cost to the region to current fragmented targets, but achieves much higher levels of emissions reductions. However, only some of the countries have short-term emissions targets that are consistent with a stabilization scenario at 650ppm: these are Indonesia, Philippines and Viet Nam. None of the countries’ mid-term targets are coherent with more ambitious stabilization scenario at 500 ppm.

Keywords: Climate Change Mitigation, Asian Economies, Computable General Equilibrium Models

JEL Classification: Q54, Q58, C68

Suggested Citation

Bosello, Francesco and Orecchia, Carlo and Raitzer, David, Decarbonization Pathways in Southeast Asia: New Results for Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Viet Nam (December 6, 2016). FEEM Working Paper No. 75.2016. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2881223 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2881223

Francesco Bosello

University of Milan - Department of Economics, Business and Statistics

Via Festa del Perdono, 7
Milan, 20122
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Carlo Orecchia (Contact Author)

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

David Raitzer

Asian Development Bank ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

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