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Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies

44 Pages Posted: 8 Dec 2016  

William D. Nordhaus

Yale University - Department of Economics; Cowles Foundation, Yale University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 2, 2016

Abstract

Climate change remains one of the major international environmental challenges facing nations. Yet nations have to date taken minimal policies to slow climate change. Moreover, there has been no major improvement in emissions trends as of the latest data. The current study uses the updated DICE model to present new projections and the impacts of alternative climate policies. It also presents a new set of estimates of the uncertainties about future climate change and compares the results will those of other integrated assessment models. The study confirms past estimates of likely rapid climate change over the next century if there are not major climate-change policies. It suggests that it will be extremely difficult to achieve the 2°C target of international agreements even if ambitious policies are introduced in the near term. The required carbon price needed to achieve current targets has risen over time as policies have been delayed.

Keywords: Climate change, DICE model, uncertainty, social cost of carbon

JEL Classification: Q5, C6, Q54, H41

Suggested Citation

Nordhaus, William D., Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies (December 2, 2016). Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper No. 2057. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2881947

William D. Nordhaus (Contact Author)

Yale University - Department of Economics ( email )

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New Haven, CT 06520-8268
United States
203-432-3598 (Phone)
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Cowles Foundation, Yale University ( email )

Box 208281
New Haven, CT 06520-8281
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Cambridge, MA 02138
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