Do Voters or Politicians Choose the Outcomes of Elections? Evidence from High Stakes U.S. State Legislative Elections

Abstract

We study whether political parties exert precise control over the outcomes of legislative elections. We test for discontinuities in two outcomes that, in the absence of precise control, should be smooth at the threshold that determines control of the legislature: the identity of the party that previously held a majority, and the probability density of the election outcome. We apply these tests to high-stakes state elections that determine which party controls Congressional redistricting. We find overwhelming evidence of precise control, suggesting the majority party can --- through legal means --- ensure it barely retains enough seats to stay in power.

Keywords: election manipulation, electoral competition, redistricting

JEL Classification: D72, D73, J11