Are Automation and Trade Polarizing Developing Country Labor Markets, Too?
30 Pages Posted: 20 Dec 2016
Date Written: December 19, 2016
The automation and out-sourcing of routine, codifiable tasks are seen as driving polarization in labor markets in high-income countries. This paper first offers several explanations for why developing countries might show differing dynamics, at least for the present. Census data then confirms this, showing on average no evidence of polarization in developing countries. However, incipient polarization in a few countries as well as major drives to automate in some large, labor intensive producers suggests this may not remain the case. This raises concerns first about the impact on equity within those countries, but second the possibility that the traditional flying geese pattern "-- whereby low skilled jobs are progressively off-shored to poorer and poorer countries -- may be short circuited.
Keywords: Achieving Shared Growth, Globalization and Financial Integration, Employment and Shared Growth, Economic Theory & Research, Economic Growth, Industrial Economics, International Trade and Trade Rules, Pro-Poor Growth, Equity and Development
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