The Cost of Climate Stabilization in Southeast Asia, a Joint Assessment with Dynamic Optimization and CGE Models

39 Pages Posted: 20 Dec 2016

See all articles by Francesco Bosello

Francesco Bosello

University of Milan - Department of Economics, Business and Statistics; CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Giacomo Marangoni

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei

Carlo Orecchia

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

David Raitzer

Asian Development Bank

Massimo Tavoni

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM); Princeton University - Princeton Environmental Institute

Date Written: December 20, 2016

Abstract

Southeast Asia is at a time one of the most vulnerable region to the impacts of a changing climate, with millions of its inhabitants still trapped in extreme poverty without access to energy and employed in climate-sensitive sectors, and, potentially, one of the world’s biggest contributors to global warming in the future. Fortunately, major Southeast Asian countries are also implementing policies to improve their energy and carbon efficiency and are discussing if and how to extend these further. The present study aims to assess the implications for energy consumption, energy intensity and carbon intensity in the Southeast Asia region of a set of short-term and long-term de-carbonization policies characterized by different degrees of ambition and international cooperation. The analysis applies two energy-climate-economic models. The first, the fully dynamic Integrated Assessment model WITCH, is more aggregated in the sectoral and country representation, but provides a detailed technological description of the energy sector. The second, the ICES Computable General Equilibrium model, offers a richer sectoral breakdown of the economy and of international trade patterns, but is less refined in the representation of technology. The joint application of these two complementary models allows the capture of distinct and key aspects of low- carbon development paths in Southeast Asia.

Keywords: Climate Change Mitigation, Asian Economies, Computable General Equilibrium Models

JEL Classification: Q54, Q58, C68

Suggested Citation

Bosello, Francesco and Marangoni, Giacomo and Orecchia, Carlo and Raitzer, David and Tavoni, Massimo, The Cost of Climate Stabilization in Southeast Asia, a Joint Assessment with Dynamic Optimization and CGE Models (December 20, 2016). CMCC Research Paper No. 282; FEEM Working Paper No. 76.2016. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2887914 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2887914

Francesco Bosello

University of Milan - Department of Economics, Business and Statistics

Via Festa del Perdono, 7
Milan, 20122
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Giacomo Marangoni

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

Carlo Orecchia (Contact Author)

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

C.so Magenta 63
Milano, 20123
Italy

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

David Raitzer

Asian Development Bank ( email )

6 ADB Avenue, Mandaluyong City 1550
Metro Manila
Philippines

Massimo Tavoni

Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ( email )

Corso Magenta 63
20123 Milan
Italy

Princeton University - Princeton Environmental Institute

22 Chambers Street
Princeton, NJ 08544-0708
United States

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