Outcome Uncertainty, Fan Travel, and Aggregate Attendance

8 Pages Posted: 28 Dec 2016

See all articles by Brad R. Humphreys

Brad R. Humphreys

West Virginia University - Department of Economics

Thomas J. Miceli

University of Connecticut - Department of Economics

Date Written: December 20, 2016

Abstract

The classical Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH) informs economists’ understanding consumer decisions to attend sporting events and models of team revenue generation. Coates, Humphreys and Zhou (2014) developed a reference dependent preference based consumer choice model under uncertainty to motivate the UOH in which loss-averse consumers prefer games with certain outcomes. We develop an alternative model based on a standard expected utility model of fan behavior which incorporates fans’ decisions to travel to away games and aggregates decisions across local and visiting fans. This model generates predictions consistent with the classical UOH and concave team and league-wide total revenue functions.

Keywords: outcome uncertainty, game attendance, aggregation, travel

JEL Classification: L83, D12, Z20

Suggested Citation

Humphreys, Brad R. and Miceli, Thomas J., Outcome Uncertainty, Fan Travel, and Aggregate Attendance (December 20, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2890657 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2890657

Brad R. Humphreys (Contact Author)

West Virginia University - Department of Economics ( email )

Morgantown, WV 26506
United States

Thomas J. Miceli

University of Connecticut - Department of Economics ( email )

365 Fairfield Way, U-1063
Storrs, CT 06269-1063
United States
860-486-5810 (Phone)
860-486-4463 (Fax)

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