Dynamics between North American and European Agricultural Futures Prices During Turmoil and Financialization

Abstract

North American and European agricultural futures markets faced significant changes in recent years, i.e., the financialization which originated in the USA, the increase of futures trading in Europe and the recent price turmoils in international commodity markets. We analyse the long‐ and short‐run dynamics between North American and European agricultural futures prices during these institutional changes. The empirical results show that the US markets lead in terms of price transmissions and volatility spillovers. US markets, however, predominantly react to deviations from the long‐run equilibrium which indicates a rising impact of European agricultural markets on a global scale.

Keywords: price transmission, volatility spillovers, VECM, VAR, GARCH, dynamic conditional correlations

JEL Classification: G10, Q10, Q11