Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia

62 Pages Posted: 12 Jan 2017

See all articles by Grace Taylor

Grace Taylor

Business School, University of Western Australia

Rod Tyers

Australian National University (ANU) - School of Economics; The University of Western Australia - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 11, 2017

Abstract

Larry Summers’ re-use of the phrase appears justified in the present global economic climate since many factors contribute to comparatively poor OECD economic performance and weakening macroeconomic policy instruments. Some are measurement issues and others might be seen as the downsides of globalisation, which has integrated financial markets and redirected growth from the advanced toward the emerging economies. Yet measurable rates of return on investment do appear to be impaired by rises in perceived investment risks, institutionalised risk aversion, increased ageing and dependency, declining shares of government spending in public investment and R&D with rising shares of these directed to health, the retention of trade distortions, new concentration in industrial structure and a slower rate of human capital accumulation, not to mention an unexpected global abundance of fossil fuels and a slower Chinese economy. The information and literature supporting these concerns is reviewed and implications for global and Australian policy are inferred.

Keywords: Global Stagnation, Technical Change, Returns and Risk, Public Investment, Ageing

JEL Classification: E43, E44, E63, F44, H87

Suggested Citation

Taylor, Grace and Tyers, Rod, Secular Stagnation: Determinants and Consequences for Australia (January 11, 2017). CAMA Working Paper No. 1/2017 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2897985 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2897985

Grace Taylor

Business School, University of Western Australia ( email )

35 Stirling Highway
Crawley, Western Australia 6009
AUSTRALIA

Rod Tyers (Contact Author)

Australian National University (ANU) - School of Economics ( email )

Arndt Building
Australian National University
Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 0200
Australia
61-6-249-5124 (Fax)

The University of Western Australia - Department of Economics ( email )

35 Stirling Highway
Crawley, Western Australia 6009
Australia
61 8 6488 5632 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.business.uwa.edu.au/school/staff-profiles?type=profile&dn=cn%3DRodney%20Tyers%2Cou%3DEcon

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