Labour Migration and Economic Growth in East and South‐East Asia

24 Pages Posted: 15 Jan 2017

See all articles by Terrie Walmsley

Terrie Walmsley

ImpactECON, LLC; University of Southern California - Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE)

Angel Aguiar

Purdue University - Department of Agricultural Economics

S. Amer Ahmed

World Bank

Date Written: January 2017

Abstract

East and South‐East Asia will face major demographic changes over the next few decades with many countries’ labour forces starting to decline, while others experience higher labour force growth as populations and/or participation rates increase. A well‐managed labour migration strategy presents itself as a mechanism for ameliorating the impending labour shortages in some East Asia–Pacific countries, while providing an opportunity for other countries with excess labour to provide migrant workers who will contribute to the development of the home country through greater remittance flows. This paper examines such migration policy options using a global dynamic economic simulation approach and finds that allowing migrants to respond to the major demographic changes occurring in Asia over the next 50 years would be beneficial to most economies in the region in terms of real incomes and real GDP over the 2007–50 period. Such a policy could deeply affect the net migration position of a country. Countries that were net recipients under current migration policies might become net senders under the more liberal policy regime.

Suggested Citation

Walmsley, Terrie and Aguiar, Angel and Ahmed, S. Amer, Labour Migration and Economic Growth in East and South‐East Asia (January 2017). The World Economy, Vol. 40, Issue 1, pp. 116-139, 2017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2899176 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/twec.12334

Terrie Walmsley (Contact Author)

ImpactECON, LLC ( email )

1942 Broadway
Suite 314
Boulder, CO 80302
United States

University of Southern California - Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorism Events (CREATE) ( email )

United States

Angel Aguiar

Purdue University - Department of Agricultural Economics ( email )

West Lafayette, IN 47907-1145
United States

S. Amer Ahmed

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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