Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900

65 Pages Posted: 17 Jan 2017

See all articles by Murat Iyigun

Murat Iyigun

University of Colorado at Boulder - Department of Economics; Harvard University - Center for International Development (CID); IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Nathan Nunn

Harvard University - Department of Economics

Nancy Qian

Yale University - Department of Economics

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 2017

Abstract

We investigate the long-run effects of cooling on conflict. We construct a geo-referenced and digitized database of conflicts in Europe, North Africa, and the Near East from 1400-1900, which we merge with historical temperature data. We show that cooling is associated with increased conflict. When we allow the effects of cooling over a fifty-year period to depend on the extent of cooling during the preceding period, the effect of cooling on conflict is larger in locations that experienced earlier cooling. We interpret this as evidence that the adverse effects of climate change intensify with its duration.

Suggested Citation

Iyigun, Murat F. and Nunn, Nathan and Qian, Nancy, Winter is Coming: The Long-Run Effects of Climate Change on Conflict, 1400-1900 (January 2017). NBER Working Paper No. w23033, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2900038

Murat F. Iyigun (Contact Author)

University of Colorado at Boulder - Department of Economics ( email )

Campus Box 256
Boulder, CO 80309
United States
303-492-6653 (Phone)
303-492-8622 (Fax)

Harvard University - Center for International Development (CID) ( email )

One Eliot Street Building
79 JFK Street
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

IZA Institute of Labor Economics

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Nathan Nunn

Harvard University - Department of Economics ( email )

Littauer Center
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Nancy Qian

Yale University - Department of Economics ( email )

28 Hillhouse Ave
New Haven, CT 06520-8268
United States

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Downloads
21
Abstract Views
334
PlumX Metrics