Trade and Manufacturing Jobs in Germany

14 Pages Posted: 22 Jan 2017

See all articles by Wolfgang Dauth

Wolfgang Dauth

Institute for Employment Research (IAB)

Sebastian Findeisen

University of Zurich; IZA Institute of Labor Economics

Jens Suedekum

Heinrich-Heine-University Duesseldorf, Duesseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 2017

Abstract

The German economy exhibits rising service and declining manufacturing employment. But this decline is much sharper in import-competing than in export-oriented branches. We first document the individual-level job transitions behind those trends. They are not driven by manufacturing workers who smoothly switch to services. The observed shifts are entirely due to young entrants and returnees from non-employment. We then investigate if rising trade with China and Eastern Europe causally affected those labor flows. Exploiting variation across industries and regions, we find that globalization did not speed up the manufacturing decline in Germany. It even retained those jobs in the economy.

Keywords: trade, structural transformation, manufacturing, labor markets

JEL Classification: F16, J21, R11

Suggested Citation

Dauth, Wolfgang and Findeisen, Sebastian and Südekum, Jens, Trade and Manufacturing Jobs in Germany (January 2017). IZA Discussion Paper No. 10469. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2903091

Wolfgang Dauth (Contact Author)

Institute for Employment Research (IAB) ( email )

Regensburger Str. 104
Nuremberg, 90478
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.iab.de/en/ueberblick/mitarbeiter.aspx/Mitarbeiter/603

Sebastian Findeisen

University of Zurich ( email )

Rämistrasse 71
Zürich, CH-8006
Switzerland

IZA Institute of Labor Economics ( email )

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

Jens Südekum

Heinrich-Heine-University Duesseldorf, Duesseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE) ( email )

Universitaetsstr. 1
Duesseldorf, NRW 40225
Germany

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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