Jobs, Crime, and Votes: A Short-Run Evaluation of the Refugee Crisis in Germany

48 Pages Posted: 22 Jan 2017  

Markus Gehrsitz

University of Strathclyde

Martin Ungerer

Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 2017

Abstract

Millions of refugees made their way to Europe between 2014 and 2015, with over one million arriving in Germany alone. Yet, little is known about the impact of this inflow on labor markets, crime, and voting behavior. This article uses administrative data on refugee allocation and provides an evaluation of the short-run consequences of the refugee inflow. Our identification strategy exploits that a scramble for accommodation determined the assignment of refugees to German counties resulting in exogeneous variations in the number of refugees per county within and across states. Our estimates suggest that migrants have not displaced native workers but have themselves struggled to find gainful employment. We find very small increases in crime in particular with respect to drug offenses and fare-dodging. Our analysis further suggests that counties which experience a larger influx see neither more nor less support for the main anti-immigrant party than counties which experience small migrant inflows.

Keywords: immigration, refugees, unemployment, crime, voting

JEL Classification: J6, J15, K4, D72

Suggested Citation

Gehrsitz, Markus and Ungerer, Martin, Jobs, Crime, and Votes: A Short-Run Evaluation of the Refugee Crisis in Germany (January 2017). IZA Discussion Paper No. 10494. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2903116

Markus Gehrsitz (Contact Author)

University of Strathclyde ( email )

Department of Economics
199 Cathedral St
Glasgow, G4 0QU
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://www.markusgehrsitz.com

Martin Ungerer

Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) ( email )

P.O. Box 10 34 43
L 7,1
D-68034 Mannheim, 68034
Germany

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