The Cost of Climate Change in 19th Century Europe

Abstract

We can better understand the cost that climate change may impose on underdeveloped countries in the future by examining the cost imposed by climate change on developed countries in the past. Using Europe of the 19th century as a model since it resembled modern day under developed areas, I combine NOAA Gridded April-September multiproxy European temperature reconstructions and the Maddison Project Database of estimates of historical per capita GDP. I conclude that my hypothesis that societies based largely around village level subsistence agriculture will be slow to adapt production methods to a new climate environment and will therefore incur a temporary efficiency loss, is not supported. However, this result also implies that, should significant climate change occur in the future, under developed societies should be able to rapidly adapt production to accommodate the change without significant efficiency loss.

Keywords: Climate Change, Growth, Poverty

JEL Classification: Q54, C55, N13