Company Stock Price Reactions to the 2016 Election Shock: Trump, Taxes and Trade
53 Pages Posted: 2 Feb 2017 Last revised: 21 Jan 2018
Date Written: August 17, 2017
Donald Trump’s surprise election shifted expectations: corporate taxes would be lower and trade policies more restrictive. Relative stock prices responded appropriately. High-tax firms and those with large deferred tax liabilities (DTLs) gained; those with significant deferred tax assets from net operating loss carryforwards (NOL DTAs) lost. Domestically focused companies fared better than internationally oriented firms. A price contribution analysis shows that easily assessed consequences (DTLs, NOL DTAs, tax rates) were priced faster than more complex issues (net DTLs, foreign exposure). In sum, the analysis demonstrates that expectations about tax rates greatly impact firm values.
Keywords: Stock returns, event study, corporate taxes, trade policy, corporate interest payments, post-news drift, election surprise, market efficiency, price contribution analysis
JEL Classification: G12, G14, H25, O24
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation