The Impact of Exports to China on Latin American Growth

23 Pages Posted: 7 Feb 2017

See all articles by Andre C. Vianna

Andre C. Vianna

Ministry of Finance of Brazil - Santa Catarina

Date Written: December 1, 2016

Abstract

This article analyzes the relationship between GDP growth in seven major Latin American countries and China’s demand for their exports. GLS panel estimation using annual data for the period 1994-2013 shows that the relationship was both statistically and economically significant. Control variables found to be significant in positively affecting GDP growth include the investment-to-output ratio, the exchange rate, and the terms of trade, and, in negatively affecting it, population growth and the unemployment rate. Consistent with recent literature, foreign direct investment was found not to be significant. A sharp drop in exports to China for many of the countries in the sample in 2015 raises questions about the region’s vulnerability to China’s growth slowdown.

Keywords: Trade Policy, Export-Led Growth, Foreign Direct Investment, Exchange Rate

JEL Classification: F14, F43, F21, F31

Suggested Citation

Vianna, Andre C., The Impact of Exports to China on Latin American Growth (December 1, 2016). Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 47, p. 58-66, 2016. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2910452

Andre C. Vianna (Contact Author)

Ministry of Finance of Brazil - Santa Catarina ( email )

Rua Nunes Machado 192, Centro
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina 88010-460
Brazil

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