High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates

49 Pages Posted: 18 Nov 2001

See all articles by Carlo A. Favero

Carlo A. Favero

Bocconi University - Department of Economics; Bocconi University - Department of Finance; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Francesco Giavazzi

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); University of Bocconi - Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research (IGIER); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Luigi Spaventa

University of Rome

Multiple version iconThere are 3 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 1996

Abstract

This paper is a first attempt at evaluating the determinants of the total interest rate differentials on government bonds between high yielders, namely Spain, Italy, Sweden, and Germany. In particular, we address the question of the relative importance of local and global factors in the determination of such spreads. We identify and measure two components of total yield differentials: one due to expectations of exchange rate depreciation, which we call the exchange rate factor; and another which reflects the market assessment of default risk. We propose and discuss a measure of the exchange rate factors and of the default risk premium based on interest rates swaps. Overall our investigation provides strong evidence in favour of the existence of a common trend for the Spanish and Italian spreads on Bunds, which is not shared by the Swedish spread. Such trend is driven by international factors and is independent from country-specific shocks. Country-specific shocks are only relevant in explaining short-term cycles around the common stochastic trend.

Keywords: Yield differentials, high yielders

JEL Classification: E44, F30

Suggested Citation

Favero, Carlo A. and Giavazzi, Francesco and Giavazzi, Francesco and Spaventa, Luigi, High Yields: The Spread on German Interest Rates (January 1996). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=291069

Carlo A. Favero (Contact Author)

Bocconi University - Department of Economics ( email )

Via Gobbi 5
Milan, 20136
Italy

Bocconi University - Department of Finance ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milano, MI 20136
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.igier.unibocconi.it\favero

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Francesco Giavazzi

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

University of Bocconi - Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research (IGIER) ( email )

Via Roentgen 1
Milan, 20136
Italy
+39 02 5836 3304 (Phone)
+39 02 5836 3302 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Luigi Spaventa

University of Rome ( email )

Piazzale Aldo Moro 5
Roma, Rome 00185
Italy

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