The 'Double Expansion of Morbidity' Hypothesis: Evidence from Italy

30 Pages Posted: 6 Feb 2017 Last revised: 4 Mar 2018

See all articles by Vincenzo Atella

Vincenzo Atella

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS); Department of Economics and Finance; University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics

Federico Belotti

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance; University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for Economics and International Studies (CEIS)

Claudio Alberto Cricelli

Simg

Desislava Dankova

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS)

Joanna Kopinska

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics; University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS)

Alessandro Palma

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS); IEFE Bocconi

Andrea Piano Mortari

CEIS Tor Vergata

Date Written: February 3, 2018

Abstract

The last few decades have been characterized by an increase in the number of years lived in bad health, lending support to the “Expansion of Morbidity” hypothesis. In this paper we propose the “Double Expansion of Morbidity” (DEM) hypothesis, arguing that not only life expectancy gains have been transformed into years lived in “bad health”, but also, due to an earlier onset of chronic diseases, the number of years spent in “good health” is actually reduced. Limited to the Italian case, we present and discuss a set of empirical evidence confirming the DEM hypothesis. In particular, we find that from 2004 to 2014 the average number of years spent with chronic conditions in Italy increased by 7.2 years 2.3 years of which are due to an increase in life expectancy and 4.9 years due to a reduction in the age of onset of chronic conditions. Compared with 2004, in 2014, this phenomenon generated extra public health expenditure of nearly 6.3 billion euros. We discuss the policy implications of these findings.

Keywords: Life expectancy, Double expansion hypothesis, Health expenditure, Italy

JEL Classification: I10, I11, H51

Suggested Citation

Atella, Vincenzo and Belotti, Federico and Cricelli, Claudio Alberto and Dankova, Desislava and Kopinska, Joanna and Palma, Alessandro and Piano Mortari, Andrea, The 'Double Expansion of Morbidity' Hypothesis: Evidence from Italy (February 3, 2018). CEIS Working Paper No. 396. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2911054 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2911054

Vincenzo Atella (Contact Author)

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome, I-00133
Italy
+39 06 72595648 (Phone)

Department of Economics and Finance ( email )

Via Columbia 2
Roma, 00133
Italy

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Via Columbia n.2
I-00133 Rome, 00133
Italy
+39 06 72595635 (Phone)
+30 06 2020 500 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.economia.uniroma2.it/sefemeq/professori/atella/

Federico Belotti

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Department of Economics and Finance

Via Columbia 2
Rome, RM 00133
Italy

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for Economics and International Studies (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome, RM 00133
Italy

Claudio Alberto Cricelli

Simg ( email )

Pignoncino11
Firenze, 50142
Italy

Desislava Dankova

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome, I-00133
Italy

Joanna Kopinska

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Faculty of Economics ( email )

Via Columbia n.2
Rome, rome 00100
Italy

University of Rome, Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome
Italy

Alessandro Palma

University of Rome Tor Vergata - Centre for International Studies on Economic Growth (CEIS) ( email )

Via Columbia, 2
Rome, I-00133
Italy

IEFE Bocconi ( email )

viale Filippetti, 9
Milan, 20122
Italy

Andrea Piano Mortari

CEIS Tor Vergata ( email )

via Columbia, 2
Rome, rome 00133
Italy

HOME PAGE: http://www.ceistorvergata.it/area.asp?a=539&oc=817&d=1128

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