Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-Wide Perspective

43 Pages Posted: 18 Nov 2001

See all articles by Kym Anderson

Kym Anderson

University of Adelaide - Centre for International Economic Studies (CIES); Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Australian National University

Betina Dimaranan

International Food Policy Research Institute; Purdue University - Department of Agricultural Economics

Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis; Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP)

Will J. Martin

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: September 1996

Abstract

Rapid industrialization in East Asia, particularly China, is raising questions about who will feed the region in the next century and how Asia will pay for its food imports. The paper addresses this question by first reviewing existing food sector projections and then taking an economy-wide perspective using projections to 2005, based on the global CGE model known as GTAP. After showing the impact of implementing the Uruguay Round, the paper explores the effects of slower global agricultural productivity growth and of slower economic growth in China. Several policy shocks are also examined. They include the entry of China (and hence Taiwan) into the World Trade Organization (WTO), and the failure to fully abolish the bilateral quotas on textiles and clothing trade as promised under the Uruguay Round. A slow-down in farm productivity growth could be very costly to the world economy, as could slower economic growth in China. Failure to honour Uruguay Round obligations to open textile and clothing markets in OECD countries is shown to reduce East Asia's industrialization and thereby slow its net imports of food. On the other hand, the trade reform that is likely to accompany China's WTO membership would greatly benefit the economies of China and the world. It would boost exports of manufactures and strengthen food import demand, not only by China, but also its densely populated neighbours with whom its intra- and inter-industry trade in manufactures would intensify.

Keywords: Asia-Pacific, economic projections, food and agriculture markets, global CGE modelling

JEL Classification: F13, F17, O53, Q17, R13

Suggested Citation

Anderson, Kym and Dimaranan, Betina and Hertel, Thomas W. and Martin, William J., Asia-Pacific Food Markets and Trade in 2005: A Global, Economy-Wide Perspective (September 1996). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=291190

Kym Anderson (Contact Author)

University of Adelaide - Centre for International Economic Studies (CIES) ( email )

School of Economics
Adelaide SA 5005
Australia
+61 8 8313 4712 (Phone)
+61 8 8223 1460 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Australian National University ( email )

Arndt-Corden Dept of Economics
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Canberra, AK ACT 2600
Australia
+61 8 8313 4712 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://publicpolicy.anu.edu.au/crawford_people/content/staff/acde/kanderson.php

Betina Dimaranan

International Food Policy Research Institute ( email )

2033 K Street NW
Washington, DC 20006
United States
(202) 862-8155 (Phone)
(202) 467-4439 (Fax)

Purdue University - Department of Agricultural Economics ( email )

West Lafayette, IN 47907-1145
United States
(765) 494-4318 (Phone)

Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis ( email )

Department of Agricultural Economics
1145 Krannert Building
West Lafayette, IN 47907-1145
United States
765-494-4199 (Phone)
765-494-9176 (Fax)

Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP) ( email )

5735 S. Ellis Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

William J. Martin

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) ( email )

1201 Eye St, NW,
Washington, DC 20005
United States

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