Equity Factor Predictability

47 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2017

Date Written: January 28, 2016


This article comprehensively reviews the predictability of six equity factors. These factors are the market excess return, size, value, momentum, low beta and quality. I find predictability for the low beta factor and moderate predictability for the size factor. The results for other factors are mixed. Moreover, predicted returns for the market, size, value and momentum factors are to a large extent driven by a common component. This common component is partly related to the business cycle: the market, size and value factors are anti-cyclical, while the momentum factor is pro-cyclical. However, business cycles can only explain a small part of this common component.

Keywords: return predictability, forecasting, model uncertainty, factor model, forecast combination, principal components

JEL Classification: C53, G11, G12, G17

Suggested Citation

Carl, Ulrich, Equity Factor Predictability (January 28, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2915450 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2915450

Ulrich Carl (Contact Author)

mu Capital Management ( email )

Pfäffikon, Schwyz 8808
044 244 0070 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.mucm.ch

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