International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles

51 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2017

See all articles by Yusuf Soner Baskaya

Yusuf Soner Baskaya

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Julian di Giovanni

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Department of Economics and Business; Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Barcelona GSE); CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

University of Maryland - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Koc University, Graduate School of Business

Mehmet Fatih Ulu

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2017

Abstract

This paper studies the transmission of the Global Financial Cycle (GFC) to domestic credit market conditions in a large emerging market, Turkey, over the years 2003-13. Matching administrative data covering the universe of corporate loan transactions to bank balance sheets, we document four facts: (1) an easing in global financial conditions leads to lower borrowing costs and an increase in local lending; (2) domestic banks that are more exposed to international capital markets transmit the GFC locally; (3) the fall in borrowing costs is driven by a failure in uncovered interest rate parity (UIP), where the UIP risk premium comoves with the GFC over time; (4) data on posted collateral for new loan issuances show that collateral constraints do not relax during the boom phase of the GFC.

Suggested Citation

Baskaya, Yusuf Soner and di Giovanni, Julian and Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem and Ulu, Mehmet Fatih, International Spillovers and Local Credit Cycles (February 2017). NBER Working Paper No. w23149, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2915976

Yusuf Soner Baskaya (Contact Author)

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey ( email )

Anafartalar Mah. İstiklal Cad. No:10
Ulus, Ankara 06050
Turkey

Julian Di Giovanni

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Department of Economics and Business ( email )

Barcelona
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Barcelona Graduate School of Economics (Barcelona GSE) ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas, 25-27
Barcelona, Barcelona 08005
Spain

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

CREI and Universitat Pompeu Fabra ( email )

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) ( email )

London
United Kingdom

HOME PAGE: http://julian.digiovanni.ca

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan

University of Maryland - Department of Economics ( email )

College Park, MD 20742
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Koc University, Graduate School of Business ( email )

Rumelifeneri Yolu
34450 Sar?yer
Istanbul, 34450
Turkey

Mehmet Fatih Ulu

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey ( email )

Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus
06100 Ankara, Ankara 06050
Turkey

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