System Integration of Wind and Solar Power in Integrated Assessment Models: A Cross-Model Evaluation of New Approaches

41 Pages Posted: 23 Feb 2017

See all articles by Robert Pietzcker

Robert Pietzcker

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Falko Ueckerdt

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Samuel Carrara

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici

Harmen De Boer

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Hague)

Jacques Despres

University Grenoble Alpes

Shinichiro Fujimori

National Institute for Environmental Studies

Nils Johnson

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Alban Kitous

Joint Research Center of the European Commission

Yvonne Scholz

German Aerospace Center

Patrick Sullivan

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

Gunnar Luderer

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Date Written: February 23, 2017

Abstract

Mitigation-Process Integrated Assessment Models (MP-IAMs) are used to analyze long-term transformation pathways of the energy system required to achieve stringent climate change mitigation targets. Due to their substantial temporal and spatial aggregation, IAMs cannot explicitly represent all detailed challenges of integrating the variable renewable energies (VRE) wind and solar in power systems, but rather rely on parameterized modeling approaches. In the ADVANCE project, six international modeling teams have developed new approaches to improve the representation of power sector dynamics and VRE integration in IAMs. In this study, we qualitatively and quantitatively evaluate the last years’ modeling progress and study the impact of VRE integration modeling on VRE deployment in IAM scenarios. For a comprehensive and transparent qualitative evaluation, we first develop a framework of 18 features of power sector dynamics and VRE integration. We then apply this framework to the newly-developed modeling approaches to derive a detailed map of strengths and limitations of the different approaches. For the quantitative evaluation, we compare the IAMs to the detailed hourly-resolution power sector model REMIX. We find that the new modeling approaches manage to represent a large number of features of the power sector, and the numerical results are in reasonable agreement with those derived from the detailed power sector model. Updating the power sector representation and the cost and resources of wind and solar substantially increased wind and solar shares across models: Under a carbon price of 30$/tCO2 in 2020 (increasing by 5% per year), the model-average cost-minimizing VRE share over the period 2050-2100 is 62% of electricity generation, 24%-points higher than with the old model version.

Keywords: Integrated Assessment Models (IAM), Variable Renewable Energy (VRE), Wind and Solar Power, System Integration, Power Sector Model, Flexibility Options (Storage, Transmission Grid, Demand Response), Model Evaluation, Model Validation

JEL Classification: C6, C61, Q40, Q42, Q47, Q49

Suggested Citation

Pietzcker, Robert and Ueckerdt, Falko and Carrara, Samuel and De Boer, Harmen and Despres, Jacques and Fujimori, Shinichiro and Johnson, Nils and Kitous, Alban and Scholz, Yvonne and Sullivan, Patrick and Luderer, Gunnar, System Integration of Wind and Solar Power in Integrated Assessment Models: A Cross-Model Evaluation of New Approaches (February 23, 2017). FEEM Working Paper No. 7.2017. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2922409 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2922409

Robert Pietzcker (Contact Author)

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Falko Ueckerdt

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

HOME PAGE: http://www.pik-potsdam.de/pik-frontpage?set_language=en

Samuel Carrara

CMCC - Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ( email )

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Harmen De Boer

PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (The Hague) ( email )

Oranjebuitensingel 6
The Hague, 2511 VE
Netherlands

Jacques Despres

University Grenoble Alpes

151 Rue des Universités
Saint-Martin-d'Hères, 38400
France

Shinichiro Fujimori

National Institute for Environmental Studies ( email )

16-2 Onogawa
Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506
Japan

Nils Johnson

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Alban Kitous

Joint Research Center of the European Commission ( email )

Via E. Fermi 2749
Brussels, B-1049
Belgium

Yvonne Scholz

German Aerospace Center ( email )

Sportallee 54a
Hamburg, 22335
Germany

Patrick Sullivan

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

1617 Cole Blvd.
Golden, CO 80401-3393
United States

Gunnar Luderer

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

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