Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries

35 Pages Posted: 27 Feb 2017

See all articles by Jevgenijs Steinbuks

Jevgenijs Steinbuks

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Date Written: February 15, 2017

Abstract

This study assesses the accuracy of time-series econometric methods in forecasting electricity demand in developing countries. The analysis of historical time series for 106 developing countries over 1960-2012 demonstrates that econometric forecasts are highly accurate for the majority of these countries. These forecasts significantly outperform predictions of simple heuristic models, which assume that electricity demand grows at an exogenous rate or is proportional to real gross domestic product growth. The quality of the forecasts, however, diminishes for the countries and regions, where rapid economic and structural transformation or exposure to conflicts and environmental disasters makes it difficult to establish stable historical demand trends.

Keywords: Energy Policies & Economics

Suggested Citation

Steinbuks, Jevgenijs, Assessing the Accuracy of Electricity Demand Forecasts in Developing Countries (February 15, 2017). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 7974, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2923527

Jevgenijs Steinbuks (Contact Author)

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H. Street, N.W.
MSN3-311
Washington, DC 20433
United States

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