43 Pages Posted: 10 Mar 2017
Date Written: March 8, 2017
The literature on IPO long-term performance generally focuses on three- to five-year post-issue time horizons. Research published in the 2000s shows that the apparent underperformance of IPOs documented in the 1990s disappears when the different risk exposures between IPO and mature firms are accounted for by using a Carhart (1997) factor model. In this paper, we show that a sample of 7,487 U.S. IPOs between 1975 and 2014 continues to significantly underperform mature firms in terms of Carhart-alphas over two years, with underperformance peaking one year after going public. We apply a regression-based portfolio sorts approach (RPS), which allows to decompose the Carhart-alpha into firm-specific characteristics, to explain one-year IPO underperformance using a multitude of market and firm characteristics in a statistically robust setting. In fact, our RPS-model that augments the Carhart factors by a set of firm characteristics related to investments, internationality, liquidity, and leverage can explain IPO underperformance. We find similar results when using the Fama-French three-factor model or an augmented version of the Carhart model. We challenge our RPS-model by applying it to the most severely underperforming sub-samples in terms of firm size, time period, venture capital involvement, and IPO underpricing, and find it to explain IPO underperformance across all sub-samples.
Keywords: IPO Underperformance, Long-Term Performance Evaluation, Time Horizon, Firm Characteristics
JEL Classification: G14, G24, G32
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Hoechle, Daniel and Karthaus, Larissa and Schmid, Markus M., The Long-Term Performance of IPOs, Revisited (March 8, 2017). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2929733