Conservative Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion Among American Political Elites

60 Pages Posted: 17 Mar 2017  

David E. Broockman

Stanford Graduate School of Business

Christopher Skovron

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, College of Literature, Science & the Arts, Department of Political Science, Students

Date Written: March 9, 2017

Abstract

The conservative asymmetry of elite polarization and the right-skewed “democratic deficit”—wherein policy is more conservative than majorities prefer on average—represent significant puzzles. We argue that such breakdowns in aggregate representation can arise because politicians systematically misperceive constituency opinion. We demonstrate this argument in US states, where conservative citizens are more active in the public spheres politicians monitor, which we hypothesized might distort politicians’ perceptions of public opinion. With original surveys of 3,765 politicians’ perceptions of constituency opinion on nine issues, we find politicians of both parties dramatically overestimate their constituents’ support for conservative policies. This pattern is robust across methods, years, issues, districts, and states. We also show Republicans overestimate constituency conservatism especially and that this partisan difference may arise from differences in politicians’ information environments. Our findings suggest a novel way democratic representation may fail: politicians can systematically misperceive what their constituents want.

Suggested Citation

Broockman, David E. and Skovron, Christopher, Conservative Bias in Perceptions of Public Opinion Among American Political Elites (March 9, 2017). Stanford University Graduate School of Business Research Paper No. 17-25. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2930362

David E. Broockman (Contact Author)

Stanford Graduate School of Business ( email )

655 Knight Way
Stanford, CA 94305-5015
United States

Christopher Skovron

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor, College of Literature, Science & the Arts, Department of Political Science, Students ( email )

Ann Arbor, MI 48109
United States

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