Choosing Representatives to Deliver the Message in a Group Violence Intervention

Abstract

Objectives: The group based violence intervention model is predicated on the assumption that individuals who are delivered the deterrence message spread the message to the remaining group members. We focus on the problem of who should be given the initial message to maximize the reach of the message within the group.

Methods: We use social network analysis to create an algorithm to prioritize individuals to deliver the message. Using a sample of twelve gangs in four different cities, we identify the number of members in the dominant set. The edges in the gang networks are defined by being arrested or stopped together in the prior three years. In eight of the gangs we calculate the reach of observed call-ins, and compare these with the sets defined by our algorithm. In four of the gangs we calculate the reach for a strategy that only calls-in members under supervision.

Results: The message only needs to be delivered to around 1/3 of the members to reach 100% of the group. Using simulations we show our algorithm identifies the minimal dominant set in the majority of networks. The observed call-ins were often inefficient, and those under supervision could be prioritized more effectively.

Conclusions: Group based strategies should monitor their potential reach based on who has been given the message. While only calling-in those under supervision can reach a large proportion of the gang, delivering the message to those not under supervision will likely be needed to reach 100% of the group.

Keywords: gangs, networks, focused-deterrence, call-ins, dominant-set