Modeling Regional Interdependencies Using a Global Vector Error-Correcting Macroeconometric Model
Wharton Financial Institutions Center Working Paper No. 01-38
56 Pages Posted: 14 Dec 2001
Date Written: October, 2001
A financial institution such as a bank is ultimately exposed to macroeconomic fluctuations in the countries to which it has exposure, the most acute example being commercial lending to companies whose fortunes fluctuate with aggregate demand. It was this risk management need for financial institutions which motivated us to build a compact global macroeconometric model capable of generating (point as well as density) forecasts for a core set of macroeconomic factors for a set of regions and countries which explicitly allows for interconnections and dependencies that exist between national and international factors in a coherent and consistent manner. This paper provides such a global modeling framework by making use of recent advances in the analysis of cointegrating systems. In an unrestricted VAR model covering N countries/regions, the number of unknown parameters will be unfeasibly large (around p(4N-1)+1, where p is the order of the VAR), requiring a more parsimonious solution. We first estimate individual country (or region) specific vector error correcting models, where the domestic macroeconomic variables are related to corresponding foreign variables constructed exclusively to match the international trade pattern of the country under consideration. The individual country models are then combined in a consistent and cohesive manner to generate forecasts for all the variables in the world economy simultaneously. We estimate the model using quarterly data from 1979Q1 to 1999Q1 and perform contagion analysis by investigating the transmission of shocks of one variable to the rest of the world.
Keywords: Economic interlinkages, global macroeconometric modeling, risk management
JEL Classification: C320, E170, G200
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