Inflation-Forecast Targeting for India: An Outline of the Analytical Framework
38 Pages Posted: 23 Mar 2017
Date Written: February 2017
India formally adopted flexible inflation targeting (FIT) in June 2016 to place price stability, defined in terms of a target CPI inflation, as the primary objective of monetary policy. In this context, the paper draws on Indian macroeconomic developments since 2000 and the experience of other countries that adopted FIT to bring out insights on how credible policy with an emphasis on a strong nominal anchor can reduce the impact of supply shocks and improve macroeconomic stability. For illustrating the key issues given the unique structural characteristics of India and the policy options under an FIT framework, the paper describes an analytical framework using the core quarterly projection model (QPM). Simulations of the QPM are carried out to illustrate the monetary policy responses under different types of uncertainty and to bring out the importance of gaining credibility for improving monetary policy efficacy.
Keywords: Asia and Pacific, Disinflation, India, Inflation targeting, Forecasting models, Monetary policy, Price stabilization, Central banks and their policies, inflation targeting; Reserve Bank of India; inflation episodes in India; forecasting models; monetary policy models; model calibration; monetary policy rules; monetary policy simulations, Reserve Bank of India, inflation episodes in India, monetary policy models, model calibration, monetary policy rules, monetary policy simulations, Model Evaluation and Testing, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
JEL Classification: C52, C53, E12, E31, E42, E47, E52, E58, E65
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation