Quarterly Projection Model for India: Key Elements and Properties

42 Pages Posted: 23 Mar 2017

See all articles by Jaromír Beneš

Jaromír Beneš

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Kevin Clinton

Government of Canada - Bank of Canada

asish thomas george

Government of India - Reserve Bank of India

Pranav Gupta

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Joice John

Government of India - Reserve Bank of India

Ondra Kamenik

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Douglas Laxton

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department

Pratik Mitra

Government of India - Reserve Bank of India

G.V. Nadhanael

Government of India - Reserve Bank of India

Rafael Portillo

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Hou Wang

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Fan Zhang

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Date Written: February 2017

Abstract

This paper outlines the key features of the production version of the quarterly projection model (QPM), which is a forward-looking open-economy gap model, calibrated to represent the Indian case, for generating forecasts and risk assessment as well as conducting policy analysis. QPM incorporates several India-specific features like the importance of the agricultural sector and food prices in the inflation process; features of monetary policy transmission and implications of an endogenous credibility process for monetary policy formulation. The paper also describes key properties and historical decompositions of some important macroeconomic variables.

Keywords: Central banks and their policies, Monetary policy, Monetary transmission mechanism, Interest rate policy, Forecasting models, Inflation targeting, India, Asia and Pacific, inflation targeting; Reserve Bank of India; inflation episodes in India; forecasting models; monetary policy models; model calibration; monetary policy rules; monetary policy simulations, Reserve Bank of India, inflation episodes in India, monetary policy models, model calibration, monetary policy rules, monetary policy simulations, Model Evaluation and Testing, Forecasting and Other Model Applications, Forecasting and Simulation, Monetary Policy (Targets, Instruments, and Effects), Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

JEL Classification: C52, C53, E12, E31, E42, E47, E52, E58, E65

Suggested Citation

Beneš, Jaromír and Clinton, Kevin and george, asish thomas and Gupta, Pranav and John, Joice and Kamenik, Ondra and Laxton, Douglas and Mitra, Pratik and Nadhanael, G.V. and Portillo, Rafael and Wang, Hou and Zhang, Fan, Quarterly Projection Model for India: Key Elements and Properties (February 2017). IMF Working Paper No. 17/33, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2938332

Jaromír Beneš (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Kevin Clinton

Government of Canada - Bank of Canada ( email )

234 Wellington Street
Ontario, Ottawa K1A 0G9
Canada
613-782-8766 (Phone)
613-782 7508 (Fax)

Asish thomas George

Government of India - Reserve Bank of India ( email )

Bakery Junction Service Road
Vazhuthacaud
Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala 695033
India

Pranav Gupta

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Joice John

Government of India - Reserve Bank of India ( email )

Bakery Junction Service Road
Vazhuthacaud
Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala 695033
India

Ondra Kamenik

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Douglas Laxton

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Pratik Mitra

Government of India - Reserve Bank of India ( email )

Monetary Policy Department, COB
RBI, FORT
MUMBAI, MAHARASHTRA 400001
India

G.V. Nadhanael

Government of India - Reserve Bank of India ( email )

Bakery Junction Service Road
Vazhuthacaud
Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala 695033
India

Rafael Portillo

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Hou Wang

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Fan Zhang

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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