Identification Through Heterogeneity

68 Pages Posted: 23 Mar 2017

See all articles by Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi

Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Economics

Thorsten Drautzburg

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2017

Abstract

Set identification in Bayesian vector autoregression (VARs) is becoming increasingly popular while facing recent criticism about potentially unwanted prior dominance and underrepresented bounds of the identified set. This can lead to biased inference even in large samples. Common estimation strategies in high dimensions or with tight restrictions can prove to be highly inefficient or even practically infeasible. We propose to include micro data on heterogeneous entities for the estimation and identification of vector autoregressions to achieve sharper inference. First, we provide conditions when imposing a simple ranking of impulse responses will sharpen inference in bivariate and trivariate VARS. Importantly, we show that this sharpening also applies to variables not subject to ranking restrictions.

Second, we develop two types of inference to address recent criticism:

i) A prior-robust posterior over the bounds of the identified set and,

(ii) a fully Bayesian sampling algorithm that allows us to efficiently include an agnostic prior over the non-identifiable parameters.

Third, we apply our methodology to US data to identify productivity news and defense spending shocks. We find that under both algorithms the bounds of the identified sets shrink substantially under heterogeneity restrictions relative to standard sign restrictions.

Keywords: Bayesian VAR, sign restrictions, set identification, micro data, news shocks, defense spending

JEL Classification: C320, E320, E620

Suggested Citation

Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan and Drautzburg, Thorsten, Identification Through Heterogeneity (February 2017). CESifo Working Paper Series No. 6359, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2939029

Pooyan Amir-Ahmadi

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign - Department of Economics ( email )

410 David Kinley Hall
1407 W. Gregory
Urbana, IL 61801
United States

Thorsten Drautzburg (Contact Author)

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia ( email )

Ten Independence Mall
Philadelphia, PA 19106-1574
United States

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