On the Highly Probable Use by F. P. Ramsey of R. Fisher's 1923 Eugenics Review of the a Treatise on Probability in His Second 1926 Review of the a Treatise on Probability

Abstract

There was a major change in both the tone and claims made about the scientific quality of Keynes’s treatment of probability in the A Treatise on Probability in Ramsey’s second review of the A Treatise on Probability in 1926 when compared to the earlier 1921 review. The tone became much more critical and sarcastic while the claims became much more negative.

It is a simple task to compare and contrast the shrill, polemical nature of Fisher’s 1923 Eugenics Review diatribe on Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability with the very similar approach taken by Ramsey in 1926. A very strong case can be made that Ramsey’s 1926 “review” of the A Treatise on Probability is simply Ramsey’s regurgitating the false claims made by Fisher in 1923, combined with the earlier 1921 review.

Ramsey never cited Fisher’s review, but from later citations made to Fisher’s other works, there is a very high probability that Ramsey’s much, more hostile take on Keynes’s A Treatise on Probability in 1926 is simply a retelling of Fisher’s tale.

Keywords: Fisher,Ramsey,Keynes

JEL Classification: B10,B12,B14,B16,B20