Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions

74 Pages Posted: 27 Mar 2017 Last revised: 6 Apr 2017

See all articles by Garth Heutel

Garth Heutel

Georgia State University

Nolan H. Miller

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

David Molitor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Date Written: March 2017

Abstract

We estimate how the mortality effects of temperature vary across U.S. climate regions to assess local and national damages from projected climate change. Using 22 years of Medicare data, we find that both cold and hot days increase mortality. However, hot days are less deadly in warm places while cold days are less deadly in cool places. Incorporating this heterogeneity into end-of-century climate change assessments reverses the conventional wisdom on climate damage incidence: cold places bear more, not less, of the mortality burden. Allowing places to adapt to their future climate substantially reduces the estimated mortality effects of climate change.

Suggested Citation

Heutel, Garth and Miller, Nolan and Molitor, David, Adaptation and the Mortality Effects of Temperature Across U.S. Climate Regions (March 2017). NBER Working Paper No. w23271. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2941249

Garth Heutel (Contact Author)

Georgia State University ( email )

Nolan Miller

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ( email )

1206 South Sixth Street
Champaign, IL 61820
United States
1-217-244-2847 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.business.illinois.edu/nmiller

David Molitor

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ( email )

601 E John St
Champaign, IL 61820
United States

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