Rainfall Variation and Changing Pattern of Agricultural Cycle

Alam, M.M., Mohd Ekhwan, T., Siwar, C., and Talib, B. 2011. Rainfall Variation and Changing Pattern of Agricultural Cycle. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 7(1): 82-89.

9 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2017 Last revised: 19 Apr 2017

See all articles by Md. Mahmudul Alam

Md. Mahmudul Alam

Universiti Utara Malaysia

Mohd Toriman

National University of Malaysia (UKM)

Chamhuri Siwar

National University of Malaysia (UKM)

Basri Talib

National University of Malaysia (UKM)

Date Written: 2011

Abstract

The decision of crop selection and the output of agricultural production are highly determined by the environmental factors, especially rainfall and water availability. In the tropical area, particularly in Malaysia, influences of these exogenous variables are so high that overall agricultural productions are now vulnerable. Crops are affected through rainfall in two different ways-high and low rainfalls. Avoiding the problem of low rainfall is nearly possible through irrigation, but over rainfall at the end of crop cycle causes destructive damages of the output.

Approach: This study uses descriptive statistics to analyze the fact and uses unit root test to measure the predictability of rainfall. The raw data is taken from 8 stations from 1980 to 2007.

Results: Shifting crop cycle is also not fruitful due to unpredictive changes of rainfall. All combination of crop cycle is also affected in a similar way. Government subsidy in agricultural sector is remarkably increasing, but farmers are not able to cope properly with the environmental changes, especially for the cash crops and seasonal crops production.

Conclusion: Under this circumstance, in the short run, adaptation approaches should be followed in farmer level and policy level. In the long run, technological advancement will play the most crucial role to solve the problem.

Keywords: Climate change, rainfall variation, agricultural cycle, irrigation, agricultural productivity, Integrated Agricultural Development Area (IADA), Malaysia

Suggested Citation

Alam, Md. Mahmudul and Toriman, Mohd and Siwar, Chamhuri and Talib, Basri, Rainfall Variation and Changing Pattern of Agricultural Cycle (2011). Alam, M.M., Mohd Ekhwan, T., Siwar, C., and Talib, B. 2011. Rainfall Variation and Changing Pattern of Agricultural Cycle. American Journal of Environmental Sciences, 7(1): 82-89.. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2941338

Md. Mahmudul Alam (Contact Author)

Universiti Utara Malaysia ( email )

Sintok, Kedah
Malaysia

Mohd Toriman

National University of Malaysia (UKM) ( email )

43600 Bandar Baru Bangi
Bangi, Selangor 06010
Malaysia

Chamhuri Siwar

National University of Malaysia (UKM) ( email )

43600 Bandar Baru Bangi
Bangi, Selangor 06010
Malaysia

Basri Talib

National University of Malaysia (UKM) ( email )

43600 Bandar Baru Bangi
Bangi, Selangor 06010
Malaysia

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