Trade Shocks and Far-Right Voting: Evidence from French Presidential Elections

33 Pages Posted: 28 Mar 2017

See all articles by Clément Malgouyres

Clément Malgouyres

Paris School of Economics (PSE); Institut des politiques publiques (PSE)

Date Written: March 2017

Abstract

The rise of radical right parties is a Europe-wide phenomenon. While many studies describe the individual or regional characteristics associated with high propensity to vote for the far-right, we know little about the causal impact of economic shocks on electoral support for the far-right. Over the period 1995-2012, we examine the impact of trade-shocks, measured as exposure to low-wage country import competition, on the local vote share of the National Front, the French main far-right party, during presidential elections. We use small communities (cantons) as units of observations and include province (département) fixed effects, so that the identifying variation comes from within-province change in imports exposure over time. We find evidence of a small but significantly positive impact of import competition exposure on votes for the far-right: a one standard-deviation increase in imports-per-worker causes the change in the far-right share to increase by 7 percent of a standard deviation. Further results suggest that this effect has been increasing over the time period considered. We conduct a simple sensitivity test supporting the notion that: (i) omitting local share of immigrants is likely to bias our estimate downward, and that (ii) this bias is likely to negligible.

Keywords: Far-Right, Voting Behavior, Local Labor Markets, Trade, import competition

Suggested Citation

Malgouyres, Clément, Trade Shocks and Far-Right Voting: Evidence from French Presidential Elections (March 2017). Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Research Paper No. RSCAS 2017/21. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2942173 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2942173

Clément Malgouyres (Contact Author)

Paris School of Economics (PSE) ( email )

48 Boulevard Jourdan
Paris, 75014 75014
France

Institut des politiques publiques (PSE) ( email )

48 boulevard Jourdan
Paris, 75014
France

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