Dynamic Electricity Intensity Trends in 91 Countries

Abstract

Despite numerous studies on energy productivity and efficiency, only a few focus on the
electricity intensity (EI) of economic output. As these studies largely examine the declining trend in
EI, the increasing and/or fluctuating trends in EI have not been studied. We analyze EI trends by
estimating the progress ratios from experience curves of 91 countries from 1991 to 2011. The results
reveal wide variation in progress ratios, ranging from 53% to 135%, with an average of 101.5%. Furthermore,
more than half of the 91 countries displayed a kinked slope, indicating the fluctuating
rate of change in EI. The rate of population growth seems to be related to the increasing EI trends.
A clear understanding of the relative performance of each country in terms of the progress ratio and
the pattern of EI trends would be useful for the country’s policymakers to develop strategic options
for the future.

Keywords: electricity intensity; progress ratio; classical experience curve; kinked experience curve;

JEL Classification: L94