Monetary Shocks, Policy Tools and Financial Firm Stock Returns: Evidence from the 2008 U.S. Quantitative Easing
The Singapore Economic Review, Vol. 62, No. 01, pp. 27-56, March 2017
54 Pages Posted: 3 Apr 2017
Date Written: April 13, 2016
We extend the work of Bernanke and Kuttner (2005) by examining the impact of monetary shocks and policy tools on aggregate stock and bond returns as well as the stock returns of financial institutions during the recent period of Quantitative Easing (QE) in the U.S. Specially, we test for the effectiveness of a major non-conventional monetary policy tool, the use of special asset purchase programs by the Federal Reserve, in impacting the financial markets. Estimates from vector auto-regression (VAR) analyses show that the impact of both unexpected and expected monetary shocks on aggregate stock returns and bond spreads is magnified several times during periods of QE. In addition, traditional monetary policy tools, like the Federal Funds rate, have no impact on aggregate stock and bond returns, neither leading up to, nor during QE, while our non-conventional policy measure does appear to have some impact. In an extension of our results, we find that unexpected monetary shocks have an increased marginal impact on the stock returns of financial firms during QE. In addition, the stock returns of financial institutions and banks have significant reactions to both changes in non-conventional monetary policy tools and announcements surrounding non-conventional policy actions. Our results are most robust for large banks.
Keywords: Financial Crisis, Monetary Policy, Quantitative Easing
JEL Classification: G01, E42, E44, E53, E58
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation