The Chances of a Drafted Baseball Player Making the Major Leagues: A Quantitative Study
The Baseball Research Journal, 46 (1), 50-55 (Spring 2017), ISBN: 978-1-943816-39-2
10 Pages Posted: 3 Apr 2017
Date Written: 2017
This is a quantitative study to determine a drafted player’s chances of making the major leagues based upon round drafted, when drafted (high school or college), and position (pitcher or position player). Historical data was collected from Baseball-Reference.com and The Baseball Cube on all players drafted through the 20th round from 1996-2011 and entered into a master spreadsheet; categorized by high school pitcher, high school position player, college pitcher, and college position player. The study's key findings: (1) Compared against the results of a previous study on the draft from 1965-95, a higher percentage of drafted players in all rounds signed from 1996-2011 than from 1965-95; (2) In each of rounds 1-5, more college players signed in proportion to high school players; (3) In the first five rounds, a greater percentage of college players in proportion to high school players played in the major leagues and played more than three years, with the greatest percentage difference in rounds 1 and 2; and (4) College pitchers were the most drafted players in rounds 1-5 combined, however, a higher percentage of college position players played in the major leagues and played more than three years.
Keywords: Major League Baseball Draft, Quantitative Study
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