중·몽·러 경제회랑의 발전 잠재력과 한국의 연계방안 (Development Potential of China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor and Korea's Linkage Plan)
141 Pages Posted: 6 Apr 2017
Date Written: December 30, 2016
Korean Abstract: 2016년 6월 중국, 몽골, 러시아는 32개 프로젝트를 포함하는 ‘중·몽·러 경제회랑 건설 프로그램’을 확정했다. 해당 경제회랑은 한국의 유라시아 협력 중점협력 대상 및 협력국들이 추진하고 있고, 리스크가 적은 소다자협력 방식을 채택하고 있으며, 남북관계 개선 시 확장성이 있는 사업인바, 중·몽·러 경제회랑과의 연계는 ‘유라시아 이니셔티브’와 ‘유라시아 협력 로드맵’의 기본 구상을 실현하는 대안적 협력모델이 될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다. 중·몽·러 경제회랑 건설 프로그램에 제시된 주요 프로젝트를 검토한 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 교통·물류 인프라 연계방안으로 한국에 유리한 교통·물류 노선 개발 유도, 투먼 교통 회랑과 연계한 중·몽·러 교통 인프라 개발, 동몽골 철도 네트워크와 나진항 연계, 국제물류정보시스템 공동개발 지원, 초국경 국제물류단지 개발 참여 등을 제안한다. 둘째, 산업협력 방안으로 정유시설 건설, 초국경 경제협력지대 활용, 전력 인프라 구축 대응, 몽골 축산물 공급 선대응 등이 필요하다.
English Abstract: In June 2016, China, Mongolia and Russia confirmed the "China- Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor Construction Program," which includes 32 projects. Through the implementation of the program, first, modernization of transportation infrastructure including Mongolia, TMGR, modernization of border logistics passing point, improvement of customs affairs and quarantine management will be done in order to develop transportation and logistics infrastructure. Second, from the viewpoint of industrial development, based on the signing of industrial cooperation agreements of three countries and China's Border Economic Cooperation, it is expected that activation of regional economic cooperation, improvement of power infrastructure of Mongolia, expansion of export of livestock products in Mongolia, cooperation of environmental protection, and development of transboundary sightseeing items will be promoted. The most influential factor in the implementation of the economic corridor construction program in China, Mongolia, and Russia is the strong commitment of the three governments. In fact, China is implementing "One Belt, One Road" strategy for building its own Eurasian traffic and logistics network. And Russia is attempting to accelerate “Look East Policy” for Far East and Siberia development and to expand EAEU for Eurasian economic integration. And Mongolia is advocating the "Steppe Road" initiative, which takes advantage of its geographical location between China and Russia's two major powers. In view of the ideal convergence of these three countries' Eurasian strategies, the “China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor" is likely to be realized. However, because the levels of the 32 projects are so diverse, there are some risks like the possible conflict between the participating countries in the process of the project, and the fact that the efficiency of investment and logistics infrastructure cooperation is still low due to the characteristics of the region with a large population for its territory, so it is not easy to combine it with industrial cooperation. Meanwhile, the Korean government's "Eurasia Initiative" has not been actively promoted because of the increasing uncertainty in the global economic environment, increasing private investment risks, economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West, worsening economy of Russia, and the deterioration of relations between South Korea and North Korea, and the suspension of the trilateral cooperation projects in South Korea, North Korea and Russia. In this situation, the linkage with the "China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor" could be an alternative cooperation model to realize the basic idea of "Eurasia Initiative" and "Eurasia Cooperation Roadmap." This is because the "China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor" is being pursued by Russia, Mongolia, and China, which are the main cooperative partners of Korea's Eurasia Cooperation and cooperating countries, adopting minilateral cooperation format and have a potential to expand its business in case of improvement of relationship between South Korea and North Korea. As a result of reviewing the major projects presented in "China- Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor Construction Program," the following linkages could be drawn. First, the development of transport and logistics routes that are favorable to Korea as a means of linking infrastructure with transportation and logistics; the development of transport infrastructure in China, Mongolia, and Russia in connection with the Tumen traffic corridor; the linkage of railway networks in the eastern region of Mongolia and Rajin Port; Joint development and support of information systems, and participation in the development of international logistics complexes across borders. Secondly, it is necessary to construct oil refinery facilities, to utilize economic cooperation zone beyond borders, to build and respond to electric power infrastructure, and to take countermeasures against supply of livestock products in Mongolia. In order to realize such a linkage plan, it is necessary to establish the following cooperation base. First, it is necessary to show the will to participate through close contact with the governments of China, Mongolia and Russia, and to propose contribution plans for each project. In other words, in the situation where the cooperation between the three countries has already been embodied, Korea should have a clear logic of participation, clear financing, and new ideas. In this process, it is essential to cooperate with Mongolia, which is the main stage of construction of "China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor," and is trying to cooperate with China and Russia and check against them at the same time. Second, action plans should be developed that take into account not only short- term economic feasibility but also longer-term strategic value. There will not be many opportunities for Korea to participate in projects that have great economic relevance right now. Therefore, it is desirable to use longer-term strategic values ？？such as the possibility of creating new growth engines and expanding the scope of inter-Korean relations. Third, it is necessary to include the "China- Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor" cooperation in the EPA/FTA negotiations with Mongolia and EAEU, which Korea is currently pursuing, and make a positive use of it.
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