남아시아 국가간 주요경제지표 연관성과 시사점 (Comovement of Key Economic Indicators Among South Asian Countries)

104 Pages Posted: 5 Apr 2017

See all articles by Woong Lee

Woong Lee

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Jung Mi Lee

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy

Date Written: December 30, 2015

Abstract

Korean Abstract: 최근 넥스트 차이나로 각광받고 있는 인도와 향후 세계경제를 견인할 신흥국 11개 국가(Next 11)로 선정된 파키스탄 및 방글라데시가 포함된 남아시아 지역에 대한 연구는 나날이 중요해지고 있다. 본고는 남아시아 국가간 주요경제지표에 대한 장단기 공행성을 분석하였다. 분석 결과 남아시아 국가간 주요경제지표의 장단기 동조화 및 연관성 정도가 매우 낮다는 것을 확인하였다. 또한 이 보고서는 남아시아 각국의 주요 거시경제지표 추이에 대해 면밀히 조사했으며, 국가간 연관성이 낮게 나타난 이유를 제시하였다. 본 연구의 남아시아 지역에 대한 정보가 우리 정부 및 기업에 대남아시아 경제협력과 진출전략 수립을 위한 유용한 자료로 사용되기를 바란다.

English Abstract: This paper investigates the short-term and long run co-movement of key economic indicators in the South Asian countries: real GDP, exports, imports, openness, exchange rate. This paper performs Johansen's co-integration test to detect long-term stochastic time trend and Vahid and Engle's common feature test to examine the existence of short-run common cycles. The results show that the co-movement of the South Asian countries is very weak not only in the long run but also in the short run. Regional conflicts and low degree of intra-trade and intra-investment have led to weak co-movement in this region. Especially tensions between India and Pakistan make barriers in most areas, including trade and investment. The weak co-movement means that the economic integration of South Asia continues to be delayed and the spillover effect of the rise of the Indian economy will be limited. Therefore, it is suggested that both firms and the government have to make differentiated and specialized strategies and policies for each South Asian country.

Note: Downloadable document is available in Korean.

Suggested Citation

Lee, Woong and Lee, Jung Mi, 남아시아 국가간 주요경제지표 연관성과 시사점 (Comovement of Key Economic Indicators Among South Asian Countries) (December 30, 2015). KIEP Research Paper, Studies in Comprehensive Regional Strategies 15-13 . Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2946006 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2946006

Woong Lee (Contact Author)

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

Seoul 137-602

Jung Mi Lee

Korea Institute for International Economic Policy ( email )

[30147] Building C, Sejong National Research Compl
Seoul, 370
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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