An Econometric Analysis of Electricity Production in Turkey

Cumhuriyet University Working Paper No. 01-03

11 Pages Posted: 27 Dec 2001

See all articles by Aziz Kutlar

Aziz Kutlar

Cumhuriyet University

Sermin Elevli

Cumhuriyet University

Date Written: December 2001


In this study, the long-run and short-run relationships between Turkish electricity production and its energy sources, thermal and hydro, is empirically examined using cointegration, error correction technique, and the FIML method. Additionally, the Granger Causality between the mentioned series is searched and the behavior of the variables for the next decade is forecasted. The time frame of the study is from 1970 to 1999. The results indicate that lignite based electricity production has a positive elasticity equal to approximately 1.5. It means that there is a close relationship between total electricity production and lignite consumption in long-run. Furthermore, the long-run coefficients are bigger and more meaningful than the short-run coefficients.

Keywords: Turkish Electricity Production, Cointegration, Error Correction Model, Granger Causality

JEL Classification: C32, L71, L94

Suggested Citation

Kutlar, Aziz and Elevli, Sermin, An Econometric Analysis of Electricity Production in Turkey (December 2001). Cumhuriyet University Working Paper No. 01-03, Available at SSRN: or

Aziz Kutlar (Contact Author)

Cumhuriyet University ( email )

Department of Economics
+90 34 62191010 (Phone)

Sermin Elevli

Cumhuriyet University ( email )

Dept. of Mining Engineering
(90)(346) 219 10 (Phone)
(90)(346) 219 11 (Fax)

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