Using the Payment System Data to Forecast the Italian GDP
31 Pages Posted: 6 Apr 2017
Date Written: February 23, 2017
Payment systems track economic transactions and therefore could be considered important indicators of economic activity. This paper describes the available monthly data on the retail settlement system for Italy and selects some of them for short-term forecasting. Using a mixed frequency factor model to predict Italian GDP, we find that payment system flows stand out when compared to other standard business cycle indicators.
Keywords: short term forecasting, LASSO, mixed frequency models, Kalman smoothing, payment systems, TARGET2
JEL Classification: C53, E17, E27, E32, E37, E42
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation