Uncertainty of Outcome and Attendance: Evidence from Russian Football
23 Pages Posted: 7 Apr 2017
Date Written: April 6, 2017
In this study, we estimate an attendance demand model in a reduced form, with an uncertainty as one of the determinants of demand, to test the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis (UOH). Data from the Russian Football Premier League (RFPL) are used here. These data fit our requirements for two reasons. First, there are few sellout matches, so demand for tickets in the RFPL is not restricted by stadium capacity. Secondly, there have hitherto been no articles devoted to the study of outcome uncertainty in the RFPL. The results indicate that the UOH does not explain the behavioral pattern of attendees in the RFPL. The dependence between the attendance and uncertainty is found to be U-shaped or even declining. Our results contradict those of Rascher and Solmes (2007) and Lemke et al. (2010) and are more in line with the findings of Coates et al. (2014). However, in contrast to Coates et al. (2014), who utilizes a reference-dependent preferences model, we explain such U-shaped dependence by the visiting team effect; an attendee’s utility in the RFPL depends more on seeing a top team coming to the city than on the uncertain outcome of the match.
Keywords: Football, Attendance, UOH, Uncertainty, Russian Football Premier League
JEL Classification: Z2, D81
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation