Twenty Years of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union: A Synthetic Control Method Analysis

13 Pages Posted: 7 Apr 2017

See all articles by Hüseyin Aytuğ

Hüseyin Aytuğ

Gulf Monetary Council

Merve Mavuş Kütük

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Arif Oduncu

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Sübidey Togan

Bilkent University

Date Written: May 2017

Abstract

The paper studying the 1995 EU–Turkey Customs Union (CU) delivers a quantitative assessment of trade and GDP per capita effects of the CU on the Turkish economy. Our Synthetic Control Method based analysis reveals, contrary to the results of most studies in the literature, that the CU's effects have been substantial by any standards. In particular, the paper shows that in the absence of the EU–Turkey CU, Turkish exports to the EU and GDP per capita would have been 38 per cent and 13 per cent less, respectively.

Keywords: economic integration, trade agreements, synthetic control method

Suggested Citation

Aytuğ, Hüseyin and Kütük, Merve Mavuş and Oduncu, Arif and Togan, Subidey, Twenty Years of the EU‐Turkey Customs Union: A Synthetic Control Method Analysis (May 2017). JCMS: Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 55, Issue 3, pp. 419-431, 2017, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2948096 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12490

Hüseyin Aytuğ (Contact Author)

Gulf Monetary Council

P.O. Box: 1660
Riyadh, 11441
Saudi Arabia

Merve Mavuş Kütük

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

Istiklal Cad. 10 Ulus
06100 Ankara, 06050
Turkey

Arif Oduncu

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey ( email )

Ankara, Ankara 06050
Turkey

Subidey Togan

Bilkent University ( email )

Bilkent, Ankara 06533
Turkey

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