Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand

34 Pages Posted: 11 Apr 2017

See all articles by Christophe Gouel

Christophe Gouel

CGIAR - Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division; French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) - UMR Economie Publique

Houssein Guimbard

Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Info. Internationales (CEPII)

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Date Written: April 7, 2017

Abstract

Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income, demand system, known as the Modified Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (MAIDADS). The resulting model is transparent and estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT the statistical database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. It captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are as follows: (1) global food demand will increase by 46 percent, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (2) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (3) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a 95 percent increase in demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 18 percent increase in demand for starchy staples; and (4) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 78 to 109 percent and from 20 to 42 percent, respectively.

Keywords: food security, demand, nutrition, diet, commodity markets, markets, economic development, prices, population, income, foods, Bennett’s law, food demand, nutrition transition

JEL Classification: D12, Q11

Suggested Citation

Gouel, Christophe Benoit and Gouel, Christophe Benoit and Guimbard, Houssein, Nutrition Transition and the Structure of Global Food Demand (April 7, 2017). IFPRI Discussion Paper 1631, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2950524

Christophe Benoit Gouel (Contact Author)

CGIAR - Markets, Trade, and Institutions Division ( email )

United States

French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) - UMR Economie Publique ( email )

Centre de Grignon
BP01
Thiverval-Grignon, 78850
France

HOME PAGE: http://christophegouel.com/

Houssein Guimbard

Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Info. Internationales (CEPII) ( email )

113 rue de Grenelle
Paris, F-75007
France

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