Optimism, Divergence of Opinion, and the Long-Run Performance of IPOs

56 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 2017 Last revised: 11 Sep 2019

See all articles by Naoshi Ikeda

Naoshi Ikeda

Tokyo Institute of Technology

Date Written: September 10, 2019


This study tests speculative bubble theory, which assumes investors’ heterogeneous beliefs and short-sale constraints, as a potential explanation for the long-run underperformance of initial public offerings (IPOs). The prediction of speculative bubble theory is difficult to test directly because of the unobservability of the distribution of investors' opinions. This study thus focuses on Japanese auction-method IPOs and estimates the distribution of investors' beliefs. It finds that both the level of optimism and the divergence of investors' opinions cause the overvaluation of the first-day market price, but that the former has more explanatory power for post-IPO underperformance.

Keywords: initial public offering; long-run performance; heterogeneous beliefs; optimism; divergence of opinion

JEL Classification: G12; G14; G32

Suggested Citation

Ikeda, Naoshi, Optimism, Divergence of Opinion, and the Long-Run Performance of IPOs (September 10, 2019). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2951535 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2951535

Naoshi Ikeda (Contact Author)

Tokyo Institute of Technology ( email )

2-12-1 O-okayama, Meguro-ku
Tokyo 152-8550, 52-8552

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