The Quanto Theory of Exchange Rates
47 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 2017
Date Written: April 7, 2017
We present a new, theoretically motivated, forecasting variable for exchange rates that is based on the prices of quanto index contracts, and show via panel regressions that the quanto forecast variable is a statistically and economically significant predictor of currency appreciation. We also test the quanto variable's ability to forecast differential currency appreciation out of sample, and find that it outperforms predictions based on uncovered interest parity, on purchasing power parity, and on a random walk.
Keywords: exchange rate, currency, forecasting, predictability, carry trade, quanto contracts
JEL Classification: G12, G15, F31, F37, F47
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