Uncertainty Types and Transitions in the Entrepreneurial Process

Organization Science, Forthcoming

John F. Baugh Center for Entrepreneurship and Free Enterprise Working Paper No. 2017-05

41 Pages Posted: 15 Apr 2017

See all articles by Mark Packard

Mark Packard

University of Nevada, Reno

Brent Clark

University of Nebraska Omaha

Peter G. Klein

Baylor University - Hankamer School of Business; Norwegian School of Economics (NHH) - Department of Strategy and Management; Ludwig von Mises Institute

Date Written: April 13, 2017

Abstract

While judgment is typically viewed as a discrete decision process, we conceptualize it as a continuous and dynamic process of reassessment and revision. Adopting this approach, we revisit the nature of entrepreneurial decision-making under uncertainty. We begin with a novel typology of uncertainty that defines and delineates different types of uncertain contexts. We then examine the nature of decision-making within these distinct contexts, highlighting differences in how entrepreneurs make decisions within different types of uncertainty. We build these insights into a theory of the entrepreneurial process that highlights the transitory nature of uncertainty as entrepreneurs make certain judgments and revise those judgments over time. We discuss how uncertainty transitions throughout the judgment process, how the judgment process continues dynamically even after a judgment is made, and how the nature of uncertainty shifts over time due to endogenous and exogenous change.

Keywords: Uncertainty, Entrepreneurship, Decision-making, Process

JEL Classification: L26, D81, D84

Suggested Citation

Packard, Mark and Clark, Brent and Klein, Peter G., Uncertainty Types and Transitions in the Entrepreneurial Process (April 13, 2017). Organization Science, Forthcoming , John F. Baugh Center for Entrepreneurship and Free Enterprise Working Paper No. 2017-05, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2952581 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2952581

Mark Packard

University of Nevada, Reno ( email )

United States

Brent Clark

University of Nebraska Omaha ( email )

6708 Pine St
228s Mammel Hall
Omaha, NE 68182-1101
United States

Peter G. Klein (Contact Author)

Baylor University - Hankamer School of Business ( email )

Waco, TX 76798
United States
254-710-4903 (Phone)

Norwegian School of Economics (NHH) - Department of Strategy and Management ( email )

Breiviksveien 40
N-5045 Bergen
Norway

Ludwig von Mises Institute ( email )

Auburn, AL
United States

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